Badger off the Back

Finally, an egg was not laid in a big home game (in front of 14,000+). Finally, Ed DeChellis and these seniors beat the Wisconsin Badgers. Finally, this team looks like an NCAA tournament squad. It’s been one hell of a longtime coming, but the Nits out-muscled, out-worked, and out-played the 15th-ranked Badgers yesterday for the biggest victory of the year.

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
Wis	53	52	0.98	48.1%	15.1%	25.0%	5.8%
PSU	53	56	1.06	55.0%	18.9%	30.8%	50.0%

It was another tale of two halves, though, as the outcome of the game looked very bleak at halftime. Wisconsin played their usual, grueling style, and PSU was ice cold from the floor. The Badgers jumped out to a 22-9 lead with 7:39 to play on another agonizing bucket at the shot clock buzzer, this time courtesy of a Jordan Taylor 3 at the top of the key. DJ Jackson and Jermaine Marshall hit some big shots to keep the Lions in the game, but it just seemed a lot like the 2009 Wisconsin home game all over again (that the NIT champs lost 54-44). Even when the Nits looked like they were gonna get a stop, Wisky would get the offensive board or draw a foul. It can be really frustrating to watch, especially when you know Wisconsin is going to waste another 30 seconds of game clock.  The halftime numbers were ugly, and it would’ve been a lot worse if Wisconsin didn’t turn it over 6 times.

However, PSU came out fearless and stormed back. They went on an 18-6 run to start the half, taking a 38-35 lead. This was due to Talor Battle getting on track and Tim Frazier having a positive impact. Tim had a rough start to the game, getting burned on defense and turning it over on offense. He only played 8 minutes, then sat (largely due to Marshall’s effectiveness). But when he was in for this stretch, TB and TF were effective penetrating against Wisconsin’s defense. Talor had a couple nice finishes around the tin, especially a nice off hand flip high off the glass over Jon Leuer. Tim also had two nice drives, one resulting in a double-clutch layup at the end of the shot clock, while the other resulting in a mid-air pass between two defenders for an Andrew Jones dunk.

The two plays that really put it away for PSU on the offensive end down the stretch, IMO, were Jeff Brooks’ trey right in the face of Leuer, and Battle’s drive and dish to Jones for a layup with 1:15 remaining (extended the lead to 6).

Wisconsin was struggling on offense in the 2nd half, as well. I was disappointed with how little credit Bo Ryan gave the PSU defense, pretty much saying the Badgers missed some easy shots. Mike Bruesewitz missed a couple jumpers and Jordan Taylor missed a contested layup near the end of the game (that would’ve cut a 48-44 PSU lead to 2), but the Nittany Lions did a great job of closing down the interior and forcing Wisconsin into difficult jumpers. Jon Leuer went 0-4 from 3, but I didn’t think he got any particularly easy looks. Before the desperation heaves started, Wisconsin was 6-20 from the field in the 2nd half, they finished 9-28 (32.1%). PSU was 12-19 (63.2%) and Talor Battle scored 20 of his 22 points in the period. Wisconsin only shot 3 foul shots for the game, which symbolized their inability to get it inside against PSU’s changing zone/man looks on defense. It was nice to see Talor have one of his best defensive performances of his career, shutting down Taylor in the second half (only 4 points) after he torched the Lions last year at the Kohl Center.

The Lions sit now at 5-4, tied for fourth in the conference. They only have two remaining games against the clear top 3 of the conference (@ Wisky, OSU). They still have yet to face Minnesota, a team who has looked vulnerable without Al Nolen (who is now out for the year), and Northwestern, a team PSU seems to own. They have two road trips to Illinois and Michigan State (two arenas these guys have won in before), along with a remaining home game against Michigan. The Lions have to keep winning to stay in the hunt. The main concerns about the Lions’ resume are the lack of OOC quality wins and road wins. Clearly the OOC is in the past, but PSU will get some benefit of the doubt for having a respectable SOS (especially since everyone on the bubble is going to have holes in their profiles). Remember, PSU was punished in 2008-2009 not for not beating anybody in the OOC, but for SCHEDULING nobody in the OOC. And as far as road wins, if PSU gets to 10-8, they’ll have won at least one road game, possibly 2 (unless they beat potential 1-seed OSU). That likely won’t be a problem if PSU wins as much as they should to have earned a bid.

Bottomline is, this team has a legit chance, but it’s silly to throw out set win totals just yet. It totally depends on the bubble, which will be in fluctuation until Selection Sunday. Who knows how many of the now 37 at-large bids will be available. The number changes drastically during Championship week. Just please don’t think that if this team finished 16-13 or 17-12, they wouldn’t be in the conversation. Your total W-L record means absolutely nothing.

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Still Standing

I must admit, I was worried about last night’s game. I even took Iowa, who was getting 7.5. For a while there, it looked like I might be right, as the Nits came out flat after the week off. But the seniors were able to right the ship and led the Nits to a workman-like 65-51 victory. All that matters is the W.

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
Iowa	57	51	0.90	44.1%	19.3%	30.0%	17.6%
PSU	57	65	1.14	58.5%	24.6%	42.9%	23.4%

Talor Battle got back on track, as he usual does against the weaker defenses of the conference. He scored 23 points on 8-13 shooting and extended his streak at the foul line to 24 straight (and 82.2% in conference play). He is now 88 points shy of 2,000 for his career (likely to come at home against Northwestern in a few weeks). He is also 226 points away from Jesse Arnelle for the leading scorer in program history. If we make the postseason and he stays healthy, he’ll likely get there. Jeff Brooks continued his All Big Ten campaign, scoring 22 points on 9-17 shooting and maintaining the block parade with 3 more swats (I mean, look where he comes from to make this block). Drew Jones had a near double-double with 9 points and 10 rebounds.

As a team, it needs to be noted that they have dominated the boards the last 5 games, after getting humiliated in the home Purdue game. It continued last night as they posted a +40% offensive rebounding percentage for the third straight game. Also, how about this team from the free throw line? 44-46 (95.6%) the last 4 games. That is unheard of for good foul shooting teams, let alone this PSU squad who has been notoriously bad over the years. These are the little things that will make the difference in games.

So this sets up a pretty big showdown with Wisconsin on Saturday for another Coaches vs. Cancer clash. PSU has just survived their gauntlet, and they were able to put the heartbreak of OSU and PU behind them. They now stand at an even 4-4 in the conference. This next 6 game stretch will make or break these Lions. They have a legitimate chance to win all 6 of them (although the first 2 are going to be the toughest, IMO). If the Lions go 4-2 or better, they’ll be pretty close to reaching their goal of the NCAA Tournament. If they don’t, they’re gonna have to pull off some shockers at the end of the year (last 4 games = 3 road trips and a home date with Ohio State).

As far as Wisconsin, they’re going to be tough as nails, as usual. Ed still has yet to get off his schnide against Bo Ryan. Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor form one of the best duos in the nation. The Lions are going to have to defend as well as they can – hopefully limiting the # of breakdowns because the Badgers will take advantage. The improved frontline dominance has to continue as well. Yes, when you make over 60% of your 2′s and rebound over 40% of your own misses, you are dominating. I’m looking for DJ Jackson to be an X-factor. Battle against Taylor, Brooks against Leuer, Jones against Nankivil are all fairly even match-ups. We need DJ to get free against Mike Bruesewitz/Tim Jarmusz. Any and all bench production would be a very welcome sight, as well. I just have a gut feeling that Billy Oliver is going to have a small ‘breakout’ performance very soon. I think Wisconsin and their slow pace might be a good matchup for it. I know Billy’s really been struggling, but some people just don’t see how intelligent the guy is on the court. His shot is way too pure to be shooting as poorly as he has been.

Anyway, if you’re reading this, go to the game. This team deserves the support. Talor Battle is the best athlete this school has had since Michael Robinson, he deserves an audience. Also, be sure to check out my Q/A session with Wisconsin blog – Bucky’s 5th Quarter.

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What Transpired the Last Week

Going into the Michigan State game last weekend, I thought PSU had a chance to win. Michigan State has clearly shown that this year’s team is still living off of last year’s rep. While it’s mostly the same squad, they just have not played very well this year and they should not be ranked. Andrew Jones and Jeff Brooks played very well, Battle hit a big shot late, MSU had their usual woes (foul shooting – 10-20 for 50%), and PSU escaped at home with a big W.

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
MSU	61	62	1.02	47.3%	18.0%	34.2%	36.4%
PSU	61	66	1.08	44.7%	9.8%	39.5%	40.4%

Going into the Illinois game Tuesday, I thought PSU had a chance to win. Despite Illinois’ torrid shooting and fast start, they have always been soft inside. We have matched up well with them, and that’s why this has been the closest Big Ten series over the last 4 years. I knew the Illini’s blistering shooting had to regress towards the mean, and that usually happens on the road in conference. Lo and behold, PSU played great defense, Talor made ridiculous shots, Drew Jones showed up for the 2nd straight game, and PSU stole a 2nd big upset in 2 games.

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
ILL	60	55	0.92	48.9%	25.0%	14.8%	23.9%
PSU	60	57	0.95	41.3%	16.7%	29.4%	26.9%

Going into yesterday’s game, I thought PSU had no chance. With these past 2 wins and the quick 3-2 start in conference play, NCAA tourney talks crept up once again. That is still the measuring stick for this season, but I’m cautiously not buying it quite yet. We had two great wins, but they were against squads that we have had success over the last few years. This group of seniors have gone 6-7 against the Illini and Michigan State. Other than a 37 point loss to the Spartans back in 2007-2008, the average margin of those games for the Nits has been -0.5 points. Nothing special, but we can play with and beat those guys. Compare that record to the record against Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Purdue – 1-16, with an average margin of -13.1 points. If PSU wants to go dancing, they can’t take 6 automatic L’s in conference play.

They already were not competitive in their first home bout with the Boilers this year, but yesterday’s gutsy effort was a clear signal that this is not the same team that lost to Maine 3 weeks ago. Those two victories seem to have given this team a newfound confidence. I thought PSU would have a slight chance to pull their third upset in a row with the way the Buckeyes had been playing, but with Duke’s loss, an opportunity for #1 was at stake. And the Nits pushed the Bucks to the brink to earn it.

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	57	66	1.16	60.0%	24.6%	40.0%	28.9%
OSU	57	69	1.21	58.8%	8.8%	19.2%	25.5%

Clearly, this game was lost on the defensive end and with turnovers. Disappointing since it wasted such a tremendous effort on the glass. PSU did what they could to slow down freshman phenom Jared Sullinger, forcing other OSU players to beat them. Yesterday, it was Aaron Craft, the true freshman PG, who scored a career-high 19 points with 7 assists and great defense on Talor Battle (5-17 from the field, 1-10 from 3).  But despite Talor’s woes, the rest of the team played out of their minds. Tim Frazier had his best offensive game this year with 11 points (4-4 from the floor), 6 rebounds, and 5 assists. DJ with 19, Jeff with 11, and Drew Jones with 8 points and a fantastic job keeping Sully off the glass. The rest of the team shot 20-28 for an eFG% of 76.7%.

The inability to get some key defensive stops down the stretch was certainly frustrating, but this is the 2nd best offense in D-1. I didn’t really like the lack of help for Billy Oliver on Sullinger down the stretch after Andrew Jones fouled out on a pathetic call (the officiating all around was excruciating). It wasn’t particularly exciting to see Craft bury open jumper and after open jumper. But PSU picked their poison and sold their souls to having Craft beat them, and he did.

It’s just frustrating because this would’ve been a win that could’ve gone a long way to curing the non-conference stumbles for the Tournament resume. This would’ve been the Nits golden ticket – a road win versus a potential 1 seed. As long as the team gets over the emotional letdown and responds, I think this team is still alive. Now the Nits sit at 3-3 through a third of the conference season. If they want to go to the tournament, they will most likely need to get to 11 total Big Ten wins. Whether that means going 9-9 and winning 2 in the BTT, or 10-8 +1, or hell, just 11-7 in the conference would make their RPI in the low 30s. Is that going to happen? Not very likely, but this team has a winning ‘it’ factor, just like the 08-09 team. They just went toe-to-toe on the road against the likely league champion, a team they have barely even been competitive with in-league the last 5 years. The light bulb is on and this team is ready to make noise in the league. Whether or not it’s too late remains to be seen.

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Purdue 83 Penn St 68

There was a lot of unexpected performances in an expected outcome last night at the predictably empty BJC. Purdue ran away from the Nits in the 2nd half with good defense and good offense. However, it didn’t come from E’Twaun Moore for the Boilers, who had by far his worst outing of the season (4 points on 2-10 shooting). JuJuan Johnson had his typical efficient outing (15 points, 15 boards, 5 blocks) but even he wasn’t the leading scorer for Purdue. Ryne Smith and Lewis Jackson combined for 37 points on 11 shots against another forgettable defensive outing from the Nits.

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	72	68	0.94	45.1%	15.3%	20.0%	32.8%
PU	72	83	1.15	52.7%	16.7%	37.8%	74.5%

This was actually PSU’s fastest game of the season at 72 possessions. Part of that was because of the 51 fouls that were called that really made the 2nd half tough to watch. Some was inexplicably PSU’s doing at the end of the game despite still being down by 11-14, but most of it came from Hightower and his crew. Purdue shot 41 free throws, while PSU shot 20.

Offensively, PSU did a great job taking care of the ball against the Boilers, but that was about it. They didn’t shoot well, particularly Battle who was hounded all night by Lewis Jackson, Kelsey Barlow, and Terone Johnson. Talor finished with 18 points, but on 22 shots (6-22).  The star of the game was easily Jermaine Marshall, who came out of nowhere for 18 points in 28 minutes. This coming from a guy with a TOTAL of 24 minutes and 12 points on the year. He exploded against easily the Lions’ toughest opponent to date, which has left everyone wondering what the heck the guy did to be buried on the bench all year. He showcased some slick spin moves on his fearless drives to the basket, but also showed the ability to hit the open 3. It was the perfect display of everything I had been hearing about his game the last 2 years. Please play him more, Ed. At some point, proving yourself in practice means nothing when you prove yourself like this in your first Big Ten game.

I was disappointed by DJ’s 4 shots, but then again, this proves the point. Everyone has been bitching for more production from ‘the other guys’, so one of the big 3 is going to suffer with less shots. Andrew Jones made 3 jumpers and Jermaine obviously did his thing. And how about some love for Jeff Brooks. The much-maligned senior is off to a fantastic conference start. After last night’s 15 and 10 performance, he is now averaging 18 points (on 71% shooting) 7.7 RPG, and 2 BPG in conference play. It doesn’t look like the glimpses seen in the non-con were flukes.

Defensively, the Nits got burned again for 1.15 PPP. But there were at least some good signs, particularly Moore’s off night. The Lions actually forced some turnovers and got some run outs (14 fast break points). I missed the first half of this game, but obviously Ryne Smith going 5-5 from 3 is terrible, but the 2 I saw were contested, tough shots. Kid is just shooting very well right now. It’ll be interesting to see how well he shoots the rest of the way. Same with Lewis Jackson who hit some very difficult, fade-away jumpers. Purdue dominated the boards, but sometimes that didn’t even yield points. For instance, one possession early in the 2nd half, the Boilers got credited with 4 offensive boards but they didn’t score.

Probably the most disturbing issue for me was this team just already looks fatigued. It might be from the quick turn-around from Sunday’s game, and it also might be tough to play in front of an empty arena, but it’s going to be interesting to see how this team holds up physically throughout the rest of the season. They don’t have much time to rest as the Spartans come to town Saturday at 1:00 PM. Tickets are not included in the student season package but they are free to all students.

 

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Purdue Preview

But first…a quick recap of the Nittany Lions’ 76-69 loss to the Wolverines.

Y’know, the Lions like making blogging easy. Why did PSU lose? They didn’t play defense, which has pretty much been the key to every game this year against big time opponents. It was a total team effort. They were way too quick to provide help to drivers, leaving numerous known shooters wide open. They were never able to get that key stop in the 2nd half to stop the Michigan comeback and extend their lead (that should’ve been bigger with how well the offense played in the 1st half, but defensive breakdowns prevented that). It’s so incredibly frustrating to watch. Y’know it’s bad when enemy bloggers are not giving as much credit to their own team because the opposing defense was that bad.

The defense negated a great effort from Talor Battle (31 points), while Jeff Brooks and DJ Jackson provided other scoring options (combined 31). The offense was just fine, although it was clear the team lacked juice at the end of the 2nd half. The price you pay for having such a short bench.

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	60	69	1.15	52.8%	10.0%	30.0%	33.3%
UM	60	76	1.27	66.0%	16.7%	15.0%	29.8%

I always feel the need to note that 1 – UM’s OReb% is so low is because they shot so well and 2 – UM’s TO% is low to begin with, but most, if not all of those were unforced. The 1.27 PPP was the 2nd worst showing by the Nits defense this season (Ole Miss – 1.42 PPP).

So onto the next one. The Nittany Lions face a pretty brutal schedule the next 2 weeks with 5 straight ranked opponents, starting and ending with the 10th ranked Boilermakers of Purdue. The Boilers come in after demolishing UM 80-57 and beating NW 82-69, well on their way to being successful without Robbie Hummel.

It’s hard to imagine the Lions being competitive in this one. Purdue knows only 3 players can score for PSU and they will be on them all game long. Unless Battle gets in the zone, or the nonexistant role players start proving to be viable options, this team is going to struggle to score. And when that happens, all hope is lost because I have no idea how to get this team to D it up.

Who’s going to slow down All-American candidate JuJuan Johnson? He’s abused Andrew Jones enough, maybe Billy Oliver will get his turn. And Purdue doesn’t have a shortage of 3-pt bombers. E’Twaun Moore is having his best season yet at 20.4 PPG and 45.5% from 3. After the 1-2 punch, Purdue has many options for more scoring. Recently it has been Ryne Smith, who has scored 30 points in PU’s first 2 conference games. Moore, Smith, D.J. Byrd, and freshman Terone Johnson all can hit the 3.

Purdue has much more depth, ability, and defense. I don’t PSU overcoming any of this to pull out the W tonight. But stranger things have happened. I’d expect Purdue to win by double digits.

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PSU 69 IU 60

Easily the most encouraging thing from this game was that the team moved on from Maine. That was a kind of loss that could linger around in the lockerroom, but it is behind these guys. The real season has started and the Nits showed up Monday night. With only Indiana and Iowa on the Big Ten slate just once again, it was nice to see PSU actually take advantage of these few games with the big road win.

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	57	69	1.22	64.1%	21.1%	27.3%	66.7%
IU	57	60	1.06	50.9%	15.8%	29.4%	14.8%

Now I must admit, I didn’t get to see the game. But it seems pretty simple why the Nits won. They shot lights out, which is usually key ingredient #1 to a Big Ten road win. They also got to the foul line, but the number is a little inflated considering half of the Nits FTAs came with less than 2.5 minutes to go in typical end-of-game foul-a-thon fashion.

Defensively, the numbers are not too impressive. Only 9 forced TOs against a team that practically gives them away? The Nits did keep the Hoosiers off the offensive glass and didn’t put them at the foul line, but the Hoosiers aren’t good up front anyway, so it’s not really saying much. Their main frontcourt contributor, Christian Watford, was hampered with backspasms throughout the game and finished with his worst game of the season. A little disconcerting that despite no inside game, the Hoosiers still shot pretty well, especially from the perimeter (9-20, 45%). But we know this team has defensive issues, so this actually can be considered somewhat of an improved performance. It’ll be interesting to see if PSU sticks to a lot more zone in the future, which they debuted in this game. PSU threw many different looks at the Hoosiers (2-3, 1-3-1, man). Shoutout to Tim Frazier (for a steal and layup in transition) and Jeff Brooks (for a block that landed in PSU’s possession) with some huge defensive plays down the stretch.

Offensively, the Lions took advantage in the first half of some bad defensive breakdowns from the Hoosiers. DJ and Brooks carried the load in the half, combining for 26 of the Lions’ 34 points. DJ did most of his work from the perimeter (3 treys) on some open looks. Brooks paced the Lions the entire game with jumpers and floaters, scoring a career-high 23 points on 12 shots. He also grabbed 8 boards, swatted 3 shots, and didn’t turn the ball over once. Probably the best game of Brooks’ career here. Battle picked it up in the 2nd half with 3 triples, as he finished with 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists. DJ was quiet in the 2nd half offensively, but finished with 15 points and 8 boards. With Tim Frazier and Andrew Jones completely content with not taking any shots, PSU’s 3-headed attack is going to need to produce in a big way for this team to win games. They combined for 57 points and 22 boards against the Hoosiers. It’s hard to see this team winning in this conference if these 3 don’t combine for at least 50 each night…where would the other points come from?

Taran Buie was suspended this game as it was announced he has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. Certainly disappointing, to say the least. Any promise that a Battle-Buie backcourt brought us in the preseason has pretty much been squandered. There’s not much else to say other than there is not going to be much, if any production from the bench. Only Woodyard and Oliver played against the Hoosiers – combining for 4 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist in just 23 minutes. DeChellis has not utilized a deep bench in his 8 years here, so it’s doubtful anything changes in conference unless injuries occur.

All in all, happy the guys won, but there was nothing in this performance that signaled deficiencies had been addressed. The rest of the conference will do a much better job defending PSU’s 3 attackers. Hard to imagine the trio puts up these numbers again this season.

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Massive Recap

Game #2 – St. Joseph’s

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	74	66	0.89	37.3%	21.6%	31.0%	45.5%
SJU	74	57	0.77	38.2%	25.3%	22.0%	36.4%

Game #3 – Fairfield

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	64	64	1.00	48.4%	18.8%	37.8%	8.2%
Fair	64	49	0.77	34.2%	25.0%	38.6%	23.3%

Game #4 – Central Connecticut St

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	65	77	1.19	56.3%	15.4%	26.9%	25.0%
CCSU	65	61	0.94	47.3%	21.5%	31.3%	20.0%

Game #5 – @ Ole Miss

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	59	71	1.20	51.9%	15.3%	38.7%	32.7%
Miss	59	84	1.42	64.4%	15.3%	48.1%	44.2%

Game #6 – Furman

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	57	70	1.23	66.7%	24.6%	40.9%	12.5%
Fur	57	49	0.86	46.9%	22.8%	20.0%	10.4%

This is what has been happening with the basketball program the last 2 and a half weeks. PSU has taken care of business in the 5 games they should have so far. But in the one game that could be considered a toss-up, the Lions’ defense got worked in every facet. Ole Miss put up a Michigan State-like 48.1% offensive rebounding percentage, while they shot well (especially from 3) and took care of the basketball. Harsh critiques of the defense might be not be entirely justified since I didn’t see the game, but obviously these numbers will not win any games in the Big Ten. I say it might not be justified because I don’t think Trevor Gaskins for the Rebels is going score 24 points with 6 threes in a game again, and the defense in the other 5 games has looked much-improved (especially the job done on C.J. McCollum, who recently dropped 42 on Kent State). Time will tell as the season wears on.

Offensively, the Lions have 4 scorers in what appears to be another small rotation. Jeff Brooks has been the biggest surprise so far. I don’t think we’ll be hearing the groans from the crowd as he takes anymore 3′s. His jumper has improved, his handle is more smooth, and he has nearly-perfected a slick pull-up midrange floater off the dribble. While we’ve seen Brooks show flashes in his career, there has been nothing quite like this. His statline against the Rebels (15 pts, 9 rebs, 2 dimes, 2 blocks in 38 min) makes me believe that Jeff could very well be on his way to an unofficial Big Ten Breakout Player of the Year award. David Jackson and Talor Battle are also going to depended upon to put up a bulk of the points. Those 3 are likely going to account for 70% of PSU’s points. However, if one is struggling, where will PSU find the offense to compensate? Taran Buie is the only other player in this rotation that can make some baskets consistently. Granted, he is a true freshmen that is going to have his off-games, but he’s got confidence and the mentality. Tim Frazier looks like a much more controlled game manager in his 2nd year. He’s filling the statsheet everywhere but points. He’s a great creator for others, but one has to wonder how the Big Ten is going to defend a guy who really doesn’t appear comfortable yet shooting the basketball. He’s got a ways to go in showing that he can be depended upon for scoring points on his own when others are having off-nights. Andrew Jones hasn’t really made much progress at all. He’s nearly invisible on offense and apparently he is content with that when he posts up 10′ from the basket. Drew is still counted on for his defense and rebounding, which apparently was missing at Ole Miss (31 minutes – 3 rebounds, 4 fouls). They’re going to need more from Drew here-on-out. Billy Oliver is the only other guy that’s going to log consistent minutes. I like Billy’s game: heady player who draws charges and is always in position on defense, and has a nice shooting touch from deep. However, in his 14 minutes against the Rebels,  he turned the ball over 4 times, so one has to wonder if he can handle the pressure the Big Ten is going to bring.

I’m not a fan of this short bench and I have no idea what’s going on with Tre Bowman/Camm Woodyard/Jermaine Marshall. I personally like Marshall the most out of the three guys. Woodyard’s been getting the most run but his minutes have been inconsistent (1-19-13-15-0-6), and he has only made 2 of his 16 FGA so far. Bowman hasn’t looked comfortable at all in the limited time he has seen on the floor. Marshall has gotten the least amount of time, but he has looked good. I can only hope Marshall does whatever the hell is needed in practice to get on the court. I want to see what he can do in game situations.

I believe we’re in for an interesting year with this crew. I think this team has enough talent and experience to be competitive night-in and night-out in the conference. But there are too many concerns for me to consider this team as having a realistic shot at making the NCAAs. Not yet, anyway. The offense somehow finds ways to produce points, despite the lack of any interior presence, but when the jumpers aren’t falling like against St. Joe’s, this team looks ugly. Defensively, I like the improvements of Brooks and Frazier. Battle did a great job on McCollum and more minutes from Frazier should take some of the ball-handling load off of Talor. He should have legs to be more active. We’ll see how Drew can hold down the interior this Wednesday night against Jordan Williams and Maryland. I need to see more before I’m convinced PSU can defend up to Big Ten standards (<1.00 O-PPP).

We will have a better grasp on this team’s identity after the Maryland and Virginia Tech games…

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Recap: PSU 70 Lehigh 56

Official Box Score

It certainly wasn’t pretty at times, but the Nittany Lions hung tough and won their 6th consecutive season opener. In a game that was eerily similar to last weekend’s exhibition, Penn State displayed a pretty pathetic performance offensively in the first half (21 points, 0.69 PPP, 23.1% TO%, 23% eFG%), but they exploded out of their funk in the 2nd half and ran away with the ball game.

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	63	70	1.11	45.2%	17.4%	46.2%	22.6%
Lehigh	63	56	0.89	44.2%	18.8%	18.2%	23.1%

The four factor analysis shows that PSU won the game with their ridiculous rebounding advantage. I personally think that while the rebounding was superb, the Nittany Lions won the game with their stifling defense. C.J. McCollum, who was only held to single digit scoring 4 times in 33 games during his freshmen campaign, never got in any rhythm and finished with just 7 points on 3-11 shooting.  Battle was matched up on McCollum for the majority of the game, but the rest of the team did a fantastic job providing help whenever he would penetrate. Gabe Knutson, Lehigh’s supposed 2nd best player, didn’t do anything, either, although I was not very impressed with his game. I thought he would be tougher down low, but PSU physically outmuscled him out of the paint. Knutson finished with just 4 points from the foul line and 5 rebounds in 29 minutes. It also should be noted that Michael Ojo, Lehigh’s senior captain and projected 3rd scorer, missed the game with an undisclosed illness.

While PSU’s final defensive numbers are pretty solid, they were even better before garbage time. According to Statsheet, the game was statistically over at 3:15, so I eliminated the last 3 minutes of the play-by-play and recalculated the statistics. With 3 minutes left in the game, Lehigh had just 44 points (17 in the 2nd half) and were scoring just 0.70 PPP on 37.5% eFG%. These are the kinds of defensive performances PSU is going to need to compete in conference play. They only forced the Hawks to turn it over on just 18.8% of their possessions (although Lehigh was solid at taking care of the ball last year), but Jeff Brooks was doing work on the interior with a career-high 5 blocks.

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East Stroudsburg Recap

The anticipation for the start of the season reaches its peak around this time – the exhibition game. We are all so ready for the season to start that we desperately analyze everything that happens in this said exhibition, as if it’s an important clue to the puzzle of the season. This game will have no importance whatsoever in about 10 days, and it’s unfair to judge players based off this tiny bit of action. Especially when you consider how many players logged minutes.

All that said, the Penn State offense yesterday left a lot to be desired in the first half. In fact, it was a pretty pitiful display in pretty much every aspect. To quantify the first half, the Lions posted a 65.5 offensive efficiency rating, which means just 0.65 points a possession. For comparison purposes, the Lions posted a 101.0 efficency in Big Ten play last season. They turned the ball over 10 times (26.3% TO rate) and shot poorly (33.3% eFG%), especially from the foul line once again (5-13). They actually found themselves down 1 at the break to the Warriors. It might be cause for alarm, but the Lions turned it around dramatically in the 2nd half to the tune of 124.8 efficiency, 18.3% TO%, and 67.3% eFG%. They even made all 6 foul shots that were attempted.

Final Tempo-Free #’s (courtesy of SCACCHoops).

Team	Poss	Score	Eff	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	70	66	94.8	49.1%	23.0%	32.3%	33.9
ESU	70	52	73.4	35.8%	26.8%	30.2%	20.0

Some general team thoughts:

• I was pleased with the defensive effort. Granted, they are suppose to shut down an overmatched opponent, but at least they did. They played straight half-court man the whole game, which kind of surprised me but it was effective. They forced turnovers and blocked shots, which is something that was rarely seen last season. There weren’t too many rotational breakdowns either. Hopefully that is a sign of good things to come, but I’m not holding my breath.
• The other 3 seniors were not assertive on offense again. Brooks, minus a couple of hustle plays, was nonexistant on offense in the first half. DJ took a couple of shots and drove once, but was pretty unsuccessful. Drew Jones got to the foul line a few times, but that’s about it. The 3 combined for 18 points in 66 minutes of play. We’re going to need more than that (although, granted, I don’t think we will be playing 12 guys a game, either).
• Pace-wise, I didn’t see anything drastically different. 70 possessions is more than PSU’s usual 62 or so in Big Ten play. Frazier and Battle would push it after missed shots, but other than a few occasions, that didn’t lead to many quick, quality shots at the other end. I just don’t see any up-tempo offense coming this season.
• Starting lineup was Frazier, Battle, Jones, Jackson, Brooks. I don’t see that changing anytime soon. First reserves off the bench were Buie and Billy Oliver. Steve Kirkpatrick got a lot of run in the first half, but I just see that as a product of Sasa’s injury and Steve’s reward for hard work in practice. I was surprised how little Marshall played. Bowman appears to be ahead of him in the rotation, as of now. I don’t think they know how deep the bench is gonna go once the season kicks off just yet.
• DJ Jackson went out near the start of the 2nd half with what is being called a slight quad strain. Nothing too serious, but we’ll see if he’s ready for the season opener.

A few standout players:

• Talor Battle – Bubby was bubby. He looked good, but it’s going to be an annoying struggle watching him from the foul line.
• Billy Oliver – It is so great to see him healthy. I was very intrigued by his performance. It’s nice to see some of the nice things said about him be put on display. He’s got a great shooting stroke from the perimeter, but he also has the hands and feet to mix it up inside. He’s going to play a lot off the bench. Helped seal the game in the 2nd half. Finished with 10 points, 3 boards, and a block in 18 minutes. 15 of those minutes came in the 2nd half after DJ went out with his injury
• Tim Frazier – He was making things happen, good and bad. He finished with 6 assists, but 4 turnovers. He made a few frustrating fouls in the 2nd half, too, but he looked much more comfortable with his handle and penetration. We’ll need him to keep progressing to make things happen this year. He finished with 10 points on 4-6 shooting. He didn’t get a chance to showcase his perimeter jumper, though…
• Taran Buie – Ron Ron was pretty erratic in the first half, but he settled down a bit in the second. His first two possessions were bad turnovers, but he finished the game with 9 points and 7 rebounds in 20 minutes. He will be good once he continues to adjust to the game.
• Jon Graham – He didn’t really standout, but I just wanted to comment on his performance. He’s a back to the basket player who is active on the glass. I think he can get some minutes this year, too. Not tremendously athletic, but he hustles and just knows what to do inside. I personally love how quick he is with his putbacks, just how you’re suppose to be. Once he adjusts physically, he’ll be able to finish the plays he didn’t make yesterday.

 

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