After PSU’s big (in a relative sense) win against the Hoosiers, the Nittany Lions are back on the road again against another winnable opponent, the extremely young Michigan Wolverines. The only returnees with Big Ten experience for the Maize n Blue are Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, Matt Vogrich, and Darius Morris. This is not too much of a preview (fantasy football championship today) but I wanted to get some thoughts out before this game.
PSU can win, but as usual, it all depends on Jeff Brooks. UM has a fresh, green frontline that I don’t think can handle Brooks’ versatility. True freshmen Jon Horford, brother of Al, is the only shot-blocking presence for Michigan, but I think he’ll have some trouble with Brooks’ quickness. I don’t see anybody stopping Brooks but himself or the zebras. Need another big game from Jeff today.
Defensively, I think the key is A) what defense DeChellis throws out there and B) how can Frazier guard breakout star Darius Morris (if the Lions play primarily man). Morris isn’t a deep threat, but he’s nearly the top assist man in the country and is making 58% of his 2′s (out of 108 attempts, around 8 a game). Michigan has a lot of shooters that can bust any zone looks, so I think the Lions will go back to man. It’ll also be huge if DJ Jackson, a 5th year senior, can stifle true freshmen wing man, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Taran Buie is out again today, so I don’t think any bench production is going to make any difference. Michigan’s future looks bright. It seemed obvious to me that Harris and Sims last year did more to hurt that team than help them. They are better without them, but they still only have 10 scholarship players, 8 of whom are underclassmen. Penn State’s experience should make the difference today, but there is no positive certainty with this squad.
KenPom likes Michigan 63-58. I have to agree. Penn State shows continued inability to defend the three point line. That’ll be the difference. Plus, I don’t like taking on the risk that Jackson, Battle, and Brooks will all be on for the Nits to win. However, with a pretty daring homestand on the horizon, this is a game PSU needs to win if they want to be competitive in the league.
Easily the most encouraging thing from this game was that the team moved on from Maine. That was a kind of loss that could linger around in the lockerroom, but it is behind these guys. The real season has started and the Nits showed up Monday night. With only Indiana and Iowa on the Big Ten slate just once again, it was nice to see PSU actually take advantage of these few games with the big road win.
Team
Poss
Score
PPP
eFG%
TO%
OReb%
FT Rate
PSU
57
69
1.22
64.1%
21.1%
27.3%
66.7%
IU
57
60
1.06
50.9%
15.8%
29.4%
14.8%
Now I must admit, I didn’t get to see the game. But it seems pretty simple why the Nits won. They shot lights out, which is usually key ingredient #1 to a Big Ten road win. They also got to the foul line, but the number is a little inflated considering half of the Nits FTAs came with less than 2.5 minutes to go in typical end-of-game foul-a-thon fashion.
Defensively, the numbers are not too impressive. Only 9 forced TOs against a team that practically gives them away? The Nits did keep the Hoosiers off the offensive glass and didn’t put them at the foul line, but the Hoosiers aren’t good up front anyway, so it’s not really saying much. Their main frontcourt contributor, Christian Watford, was hampered with backspasms throughout the game and finished with his worst game of the season. A little disconcerting that despite no inside game, the Hoosiers still shot pretty well, especially from the perimeter (9-20, 45%). But we know this team has defensive issues, so this actually can be considered somewhat of an improved performance. It’ll be interesting to see if PSU sticks to a lot more zone in the future, which they debuted in this game. PSU threw many different looks at the Hoosiers (2-3, 1-3-1, man). Shoutout to Tim Frazier (for a steal and layup in transition) and Jeff Brooks (for a block that landed in PSU’s possession) with some huge defensive plays down the stretch.
Offensively, the Lions took advantage in the first half of some bad defensive breakdowns from the Hoosiers. DJ and Brooks carried the load in the half, combining for 26 of the Lions’ 34 points. DJ did most of his work from the perimeter (3 treys) on some open looks. Brooks paced the Lions the entire game with jumpers and floaters, scoring a career-high 23 points on 12 shots. He also grabbed 8 boards, swatted 3 shots, and didn’t turn the ball over once. Probably the best game of Brooks’ career here. Battle picked it up in the 2nd half with 3 triples, as he finished with 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists. DJ was quiet in the 2nd half offensively, but finished with 15 points and 8 boards. With Tim Frazier and Andrew Jones completely content with not taking any shots, PSU’s 3-headed attack is going to need to produce in a big way for this team to win games. They combined for 57 points and 22 boards against the Hoosiers. It’s hard to see this team winning in this conference if these 3 don’t combine for at least 50 each night…where would the other points come from?
Taran Buie was suspended this game as it was announced he has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. Certainly disappointing, to say the least. Any promise that a Battle-Buie backcourt brought us in the preseason has pretty much been squandered. There’s not much else to say other than there is not going to be much, if any production from the bench. Only Woodyard and Oliver played against the Hoosiers – combining for 4 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist in just 23 minutes. DeChellis has not utilized a deep bench in his 8 years here, so it’s doubtful anything changes in conference unless injuries occur.
All in all, happy the guys won, but there was nothing in this performance that signaled deficiencies had been addressed. The rest of the conference will do a much better job defending PSU’s 3 attackers. Hard to imagine the trio puts up these numbers again this season.
I wrote my last post after VT and wasn’t planning to blog again until the Big Ten season was near. However, after last night’s horrendous egg against the Maine Black Bears at home, the final nail has been placed in this coffin of a regime. While it was unofficially over after last week’s loss to the Hokies, last night put it in ink. This team just seems destined for last place in the Big Ten again, which would make it the 5th time in 8 years of DeChellis ball.
It’s been one hell of a frustrating ride. Not all of it as been all-for-naught as there have been a couple highlights. Actually, just the 2006 ending of Illinois’ home win streak and the 2009 Big Ten season/NIT title run qualify. Everything else has been maddening ineptitude and heartbreak for players who had to endure such failures.
But I don’t think anything has been more depressing than these last 2 years. After 2008-2009, the program FINALLY had a pulse and he deserves some credit for that. But himself and the staff failed to capitalize on any of that momentum and the program looks headed for rock-bottom once again. Considering I thought this was a very real possibility about halfway through the Big Ten slate LAST season, it’s even more frustrating.
However, it’s really not a big surprise that ED was retained after last season. It took too long for this administration to fire Jerry Dunn. It took too long for this administration to give ED the resources needed to compete at this level. And now it’s taken way too long for this AD to move on from this regime. A valid argument could be made for termination after the following seasons:
2006-2007 season – After an improved 2005-2006 season with some success in the conference (6-10), the Lions went on to lose 13 BT games in a row, finishing last for the 3rd time in 4 years. This season also included losses to Stony Brook and SE Louisiana at home in the non-conference slate. This year fell well below expectations considering only one contributor moved on from the previous year’s squad (Travis Parker). With the 2005 recruiting class littered with duds, the roster lacked balance and depth. No progress on the court had been made in 4 years. The 2005-2006 NIT season became a clear effect from 5 wins against a terrible Northwestern team and a depleted Purdue program. At any other school…
2007-2008 season – 5 years had gone by and just one meaningless NIT appearance to show for it. Everyone felt bad for how Geary Claxton’s career came to an abrupt end, but it allowed for Battle to showcase his potential. Hard to imagine how that season would’ve played out if Claxton stayed healthy (I think you could argue they would’ve finished with less than 7 conference wins), but it’s even harder to imagine that team in the NCAAs. Especially after the 0-3 showing at the Old Spice Classic, a monumental collapse at home to an average Minnesota squad, and the ass-kicking to UW that was well under way before Clax’s injury. The 2-0 road BT start clearly was helped by NW’s futility and one of the worst Illini teams of the decade. With a little talent left on the roster, a new coach could’ve been brought in to give him some tools to work with. Especially with the infusion into the conference of some of the elite coaches in the game – Tubby Smith and John Beilein along with the emergence of Matt Painter to join the staples of Izzo, Ryan, and Weber. Bringing ED to the battle with those guys is bringing a knife to a gun fight.
2009-2010 – But it at least appeared for one year that the loyalty to ED might pay off. And then last year happened. It wasn’t so much that the team lost so many games or didn’t make the tournament, it was how they lost that was so agonizing. They were clearly the sign of an underachieving team that was poorly coached. It seemed like each game was a challenge in finding a new way to lose. The worst game I ever watched was last year’s Michigan game at home. I outlined my reasons for why a change needed to be made last year in the linked post above. Then the defections made it even more urgent. But we were dealt bland, insulting statements from Tim Curley about how he liked the direction of the program and its vision. It has only made him look like a fool, while insulting the 100 people who deeply care about the program.
Our athletic department and their honorable loyalty is why ED is still here. He originally signed to a 6 year contract, which I believe he convinced Curley and Co. that was the necessary time needed to turn the mess of a program around. I disagree but I’m just an outsider, and he did reward the AD with his best year ever in year 6. I guess that bought him two more years regardless of how bad last year was. But there is very little doubt in my mind that Ed DeChellis will ‘resign’ after this year if they expectedly go 5-13 or worse in the conference. It is nice to see the uproar about it all around Twitter and message boards. Usually embarrassing results like last night is met with apathy, but there seems to be plenty of care about this program and the futile results are not being accepted.
I don’t understand the point in firing DeChellis now. This isn’t the pros, and what does it say to the innocent kids like Talor Battle? He deserves better than what he’s going to get, so at least let him play it out. Firing the coach clearly signals that you give up on the season. That said, I’m very curious to see how this team plays the rest of the year. These guys aren’t clueless, they know how unrealistic their goals are now. How long before ED has a mutiny on his hands? I can see Battle being more concerned with his pro prospects than team success if they start out 0-7, which sadly is pretty likely. Then again, it’s usually 1-on-5 80% of the time anyway.
I have no idea what it would cost the university to buy-out the rest of DeChellis’ contract (that runs until 2013-2014, which again are for recruiting purposes). I don’t think it’ll be a factor because I don’t think it’ll be all that much, despite what many cynics say. Yes, our great university is incredibly greedy but this is the breaking point. I just hope a head football coaching search doesn’t detract from what should be an extensive, national search for a qualified new basketball coach.
After the Va Tech game yesterday, PSU has nearly completed it’s 2011 non-conference schedule with just a home date against Maine remaining. Is it too early to call the season over? Sadly, I don’t think so.
PSU has shown some encouraging signs in the early goings, but it appears that it was all just smoke and mirrors against crap competition. They’ve played 3 teams from BCS schools – Ole Miss, Maryland, and Virginia Tech – and they haven’t been slightly competitive in any of them. It culminated with another defensive embarrassment against the Hokies, as they lost 79-69 despite VT being without a starter.
In the 3 real games of the non-con slate, here are the tempo-free numbers:
Team
Poss
Score
PPP
eFG%
TO%
OReb%
FT Rate
PSU
62.8
59.7
0.95
39.5%
15.9%
34.5%
28.2%
UM/MD/VT
62.8
75.0
1.20
59.7%
19.1%
37.9%
40.9%
Those numbers are strikingly bad. Granted, the poor shooting % and low PPP for the Lions is mostly attributed to their gigantic egg they laid against Maryland (22.8% eFG%, 0.61 PPP). But once again, this team cannot defend anything and that is problem #1. They will not win a Big Ten game with numbers like these. In fact, the -0.25 efficiency margin would be the worst conference performance from Penn State in the last 5 years. They still don’t force turnovers (that 19.1% is a little inflated from MD’s unforced turnover bug at the beginning of that game), and they’ve actually regressed from being the best defensive rebounding team in the country to a below-average one.
Penn St
UM/MD/VT
2p%
38.7%
55.4%
3p%
27.3%
45.3%
Points in Paint
64
96
2nd Chance Points
26
41
Points off TOs
28
46
Bench Points
27
48
Time Leading
10:28
1:09:32
These numbers continue to show PSU’s deficiencies. They can’t score inside, they can’t shoot well enough outside, they can’t stop the opposing team from scoring, they have no bench, and they don’t ‘get out and run’ since they don’t force turnovers.
So where does the team go from here? Well there’s nowhere to really go but up once conference play starts, but these are very troubling signs. The team has performed this poorly against average competition. None of these 3 teams are in the top 25 (although VT was preseason top 25). It might be a little more reasonable if these 3 games were against Duke, Kansas, and Pittsburgh. How is this team gonna fare in one of the strongest Big Ten conferences in recent memory?
This team has been worse than last year’s last place finisher. While last year’s squad lost to the likes of UNC-Wilmington and Tulane, they were competitive against prime competition. They simply could not do what was needed to win close games. However, these 3 games so far have not been close. No one has replaced Babb’s perimeter production, too many people counted on Taran Buie to be an instant impact (which he is not), and the frontcourt has less depth than last year. The team continues to lack any post presence whatsoever, and certain seniors continue to be no shows against quality foes. Without any non-conference scalps, it is very likely the Lions would need 10 Big Ten wins to be in the dance. Right now, I’m concerned with how this team is going to win 5.
This is probably the biggest non-conference home game PSU has had in the DeChellis era, which shows the softness of ED schedules since MD isn’t even ranked. It is nice to get a home game in the Big Ten-ACC challenge for the first time in 3 years. I also enjoy being the later game on the last day, because I like PSU having the chance to win the challenge for the conference.
The Opponent:
If you remember, the Terrapins had a solid year last year and nearly defeated Michigan State in the NCAA tourney if it wasn’t for Korie Lucious. However, the main cause for MD’s success was the graduated Grevious Vasquez. In fact, the Terps lost 2 other starters from last year along with Vasquez – Eric Hayes and Landon Milbourne. So there were apparent questions coming into the year, such as how do you replace Vasquez’s production? Gary Williams has inserted some veteran reserves who have stepped into bigger roles this year with decent results.
Maryland enters the game 5-2 on the year, but lost 2 close games to superior opponents. They lost to #3 Pittsburgh 79-70 and Illinois 80-76. In the Pittsburgh game, they got dominated on the boards (64% Reb% for Pitt) and Maryland missed over half of their 30 free throw attempts (14-30). Against Illinois, Maryland actually had the advantage on the glass and made 13-18 from the charity stripe, but they let Illinois hit 10-19 from deep and didn’t force any turnovers.
Jordan Williams is well on his way to a breakout campaign, averaging 17.4 PPG and 11.9 RPG. How PSU defends him will probably be the key to the game. There’s been some debate about Andrew Jones’ ability, so here’s his chance to make a statement defensively. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see some zone looks if things get out of hand. Unfortunately, PSU does not have the frontcourt depth to hack him all night and put his 56% FT percentage at the line. Maryland has 4 upperclassmen starters alongside the sophomore. Cliff Tucker has been the 2nd option offensively for the Terps, scoring 13.8 PPG. He can score from inside or outside. The other starters are Adrian Bowie, Dino Gregory, and Sean Mosley, the latter of which is the only other returning starter for the Terps. They have a deeper bench than PSU, but it is mostly comprised of true freshmen. Former PSU target Terrell Stoglin is the Terps’ backup point.
This game could go either way. Penn State could come out shooting like they did against Furman and really put some pressure on the Terps. It would also really help if Jordan Williams got in foul trouble, but PSU is nowhere near aggressive enough inside on offense to accomplish that. However, if PSU’s shot is off and Jordan Williams commands the paint, things will certainly be in MD’s favor. I really gotta echo coach Preston’s comments – the Lions are going to need to defend and rebound, two things that were lacking in Mississippi. I think PSU will be able to put up some points, but unless they can stop the Terps, it probably won’t matter.
This is one of just 2 games left (@ VT) on the non-conference slate for the Nittany Lions to boost their resume. A win tonight would go a long ways toward that NCAA bid.
Projected Starters
Penn State
Pos
Maryland
#12 Talor Battle – 6’0″ Sr
G
#1 Adrian Bowie – 6’2″ Sr
#23 Tim Frazier – 6’0″ So
G
#14 Sean Mosley – 6’4″ Jr
#15 DJ Jackson – 6’7″ Sr
F
#24 Cliff Tucker – 6’6″ Sr
#25 Jeff Brooks – 6’8″ Sr
F
#33 Dino Gregory 6’7″ Sr
#22 Andrew Jones – 6’9″ Sr
C
#20 Jordan Williams – 6’10″ So
Prediction
Jordan Williams scares me. Usually in tight matchups like these, I go with the team that has the inside advantage. That would be Maryland. Hopefully I’m wrong and Maryland chokes away the game at the foul line, but if I was a betting man, I’d take the Terps to win 72-64. Really looking forward to a great student crowd, though (hopefully).
This is what has been happening with the basketball program the last 2 and a half weeks. PSU has taken care of business in the 5 games they should have so far. But in the one game that could be considered a toss-up, the Lions’ defense got worked in every facet. Ole Miss put up a Michigan State-like 48.1% offensive rebounding percentage, while they shot well (especially from 3) and took care of the basketball. Harsh critiques of the defense might be not be entirely justified since I didn’t see the game, but obviously these numbers will not win any games in the Big Ten. I say it might not be justified because I don’t think Trevor Gaskins for the Rebels is going score 24 points with 6 threes in a game again, and the defense in the other 5 games has looked much-improved (especially the job done on C.J. McCollum, who recently dropped 42 on Kent State). Time will tell as the season wears on.
Offensively, the Lions have 4 scorers in what appears to be another small rotation. Jeff Brooks has been the biggest surprise so far. I don’t think we’ll be hearing the groans from the crowd as he takes anymore 3′s. His jumper has improved, his handle is more smooth, and he has nearly-perfected a slick pull-up midrange floater off the dribble. While we’ve seen Brooks show flashes in his career, there has been nothing quite like this. His statline against the Rebels (15 pts, 9 rebs, 2 dimes, 2 blocks in 38 min) makes me believe that Jeff could very well be on his way to an unofficial Big Ten Breakout Player of the Year award. David Jackson and Talor Battle are also going to depended upon to put up a bulk of the points. Those 3 are likely going to account for 70% of PSU’s points. However, if one is struggling, where will PSU find the offense to compensate? Taran Buie is the only other player in this rotation that can make some baskets consistently. Granted, he is a true freshmen that is going to have his off-games, but he’s got confidence and the mentality. Tim Frazier looks like a much more controlled game manager in his 2nd year. He’s filling the statsheet everywhere but points. He’s a great creator for others, but one has to wonder how the Big Ten is going to defend a guy who really doesn’t appear comfortable yet shooting the basketball. He’s got a ways to go in showing that he can be depended upon for scoring points on his own when others are having off-nights. Andrew Jones hasn’t really made much progress at all. He’s nearly invisible on offense and apparently he is content with that when he posts up 10′ from the basket. Drew is still counted on for his defense and rebounding, which apparently was missing at Ole Miss (31 minutes – 3 rebounds, 4 fouls). They’re going to need more from Drew here-on-out. Billy Oliver is the only other guy that’s going to log consistent minutes. I like Billy’s game: heady player who draws charges and is always in position on defense, and has a nice shooting touch from deep. However, in his 14 minutes against the Rebels, he turned the ball over 4 times, so one has to wonder if he can handle the pressure the Big Ten is going to bring.
I’m not a fan of this short bench and I have no idea what’s going on with Tre Bowman/Camm Woodyard/Jermaine Marshall. I personally like Marshall the most out of the three guys. Woodyard’s been getting the most run but his minutes have been inconsistent (1-19-13-15-0-6), and he has only made 2 of his 16 FGA so far. Bowman hasn’t looked comfortable at all in the limited time he has seen on the floor. Marshall has gotten the least amount of time, but he has looked good. I can only hope Marshall does whatever the hell is needed in practice to get on the court. I want to see what he can do in game situations.
I believe we’re in for an interesting year with this crew. I think this team has enough talent and experience to be competitive night-in and night-out in the conference. But there are too many concerns for me to consider this team as having a realistic shot at making the NCAAs. Not yet, anyway. The offense somehow finds ways to produce points, despite the lack of any interior presence, but when the jumpers aren’t falling like against St. Joe’s, this team looks ugly. Defensively, I like the improvements of Brooks and Frazier. Battle did a great job on McCollum and more minutes from Frazier should take some of the ball-handling load off of Talor. He should have legs to be more active. We’ll see how Drew can hold down the interior this Wednesday night against Jordan Williams and Maryland. I need to see more before I’m convinced PSU can defend up to Big Ten standards (<1.00 O-PPP).
We will have a better grasp on this team’s identity after the Maryland and Virginia Tech games…
Break has been good to me, but it has not left any time for blogging. I didn’t get to catch any of the Fairfield game and I saw CCSU on a Tues. morning replay. I’ve probably spent 18 hours already in the car. Soooo, yeah, sorry for providing nothing the last week. I do plan to write up some sort of recaps for those games and St. Joe’s (which I’m not sure why I never published) for archives’ sake. But if you read this blog, you follow the team closely enough that I cannot provide you any earth-shattering info on what has transpired the last 2 games. Therefore, this preview is much more important than those at this time.
No, this game is not on TV. The only possible way to watch this live without being there apparently is Rebelvision, Mississippi’s all-access CBS Sports College Network. I have had experience with these all-access subscriptions in the past. I used it to watch PSU play St. Joe’s in the Palestra 3 years ago. I forget what it costs for one month, but if it is still anything like it was back then, don’t do it. Not reliable at all with poor quality video. Hell, I wouldn’t even take Ole Miss’ word for it that it is going to be video-broadcasted on Rebelvision. That’s my 2 cents.
The Opponent:
The Rebels were a few defections away from being a serious contender this season. Terrico White jumped to the NBA and Murphy Holloway and Eniel Polynice transferred. So with some key starters gone, there are a couple of questions facing Ole Miss. The unquestioned leader, though, is All-SEC performer Chris Warren. The senior has gotten off to a cold start so far in 2010, making only 2-21 threes. He made 111 last year at a 40.2% clip. But Chris is a natural scorer, much like Battle. This will easily be the matchup of the game. Either of these guys have the potential to break the game open, but both have gotten off to frigid starts to the season.
Mississippi has only played 3 games so far, all at home. They squeaked by a terrible Arkansas State team, but won convincingly against Murray State, an NCAA qualifier last year. However, the last time they hit the hardwood, they blew a 13 point lead with a little over 8 minutes remaining (yikes!) then lost in overtime to the Dayton Flyers. Reginald Buckner, their interior defensive presence and glass-cleaner, suffered a knee injury during the game and only played 13 minutes. His status is day-to-day according to coach Andy Kennedy. If he doesn’t play, that should be a nice advantage for the Nits on the boards.
A familiar face will be on the court for the Rebels – 6’4″ G Nick Williams, a transfer from Indiana. He has been a huge contributor for the Rebels in the first 3 games so far. He has been very selective in his shots and has made them at a high percent (64.2% eFG%). It will be interesting to see whether Battle or Frazier will guard him. Whoever it is needs to keep in his face. The other big scorer so far for the Rebels has been senior Zach Graham. The versatile wingman is averaging 16.7 PPG. He has great shooting touch, evidenced by his 12-12 start from the charity stripe. I expect DJ to be matched up on him.
Ole Miss seems like a typical SEC team. They like to use their athleticism to run out in transition and play a chaotic brand of basketball. PSU needs to get back in transition, match their athleticism on the glass, and hold onto the rock. The Rebels will put up bad shots, but it’s up to the Lions to make sure they don’t give them easy opportunities. It would be nice if Warren is kept on his cold streak, too. It’s time to see what Jeff Brooks and this Nittany Lion team is made of.
Projected Starters:
Penn State
Pos
Ole Miss
#12 Talor Battle – 6’0″ Sr
G
#12 Chris Warren – 5’10″ Sr
#23 Tim Frazier – 6’0″ So
G
#20 Nick Williams – 6’4″ So
#15 DJ Jackson – 6’7″ Sr
F
#32 Zach Graham – 6’6″ Sr
#25 Jeff Brooks – 6’8″ Sr
F
#1 Terrance Henry 6’9″ Jr
#22 Andrew Jones – 6’9″ Sr
C
#2 Reginald Buckner – 6’8″ So
Notes:
The plan for Jonathan Graham as of now is to redshirt him. He didn’t get in during garbage time of CCSU and DeChellis said after the game that they’re going to give him the redshirt. He apparently is having knee problems. More on this later
David Jones has a nice piece on the emerging Jeff Brooks
Prediction:
The Rebels are a 7 point favorite, but I’m liking PSU. I think the Nits match up athletically and play smarter basketball. As long as the battle on the boards is even and PSU can work their offense and take good shots, Penn St will be in good shape. BUT, it is the first road game for this team against a quality opponent, who is not looking to lose 2 home games in a row. Anything can happen, but this will be a nice measuring stick for both the team and individual performers going forward. I like PSU to continue to hit their freebies down the stretch and pull out a 68-64 victory.
