Quick UM Preview

After PSU’s big (in a relative sense) win against the Hoosiers, the Nittany Lions are back on the road again against another winnable opponent, the extremely young Michigan Wolverines. The only returnees with Big Ten experience for the Maize n Blue are Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, Matt Vogrich, and Darius Morris. This is not too much of a preview (fantasy football championship today) but I wanted to get some thoughts out before this game.

PSU can win, but as usual, it all depends on Jeff Brooks. UM has a fresh, green frontline that I don’t think can handle Brooks’ versatility. True freshmen Jon Horford, brother of Al, is the only shot-blocking presence for Michigan, but I think he’ll have some trouble with Brooks’ quickness. I don’t see anybody stopping Brooks but himself or the zebras. Need another big game from Jeff today.

Defensively, I think the key is A) what defense DeChellis throws out there and B) how can Frazier guard breakout star Darius Morris (if the Lions play primarily man). Morris isn’t a deep threat, but he’s nearly the top assist man in the country and is making 58% of his 2′s (out of 108 attempts, around 8 a game). Michigan has a lot of shooters that can bust any zone looks, so I think the Lions will go back to man. It’ll also be huge if DJ Jackson, a 5th year senior, can stifle true freshmen wing man, Tim Hardaway Jr.

Taran Buie is out again today, so I don’t think any bench production is going to make any difference. Michigan’s future looks bright. It seemed obvious to me that Harris and Sims last year did more to hurt that team than help them. They are better without them, but they still only have 10 scholarship players, 8 of whom are underclassmen. Penn State’s experience should make the difference today, but there is no positive certainty with this squad.

KenPom likes Michigan 63-58. I have to agree. Penn State shows continued inability to defend the three point line. That’ll be the difference. Plus, I don’t like taking on the risk that Jackson, Battle, and Brooks will all be on for the Nits to win. However, with a pretty daring homestand on the horizon, this is a game PSU needs to win if they want to be competitive in the league.

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PSU 69 IU 60

Easily the most encouraging thing from this game was that the team moved on from Maine. That was a kind of loss that could linger around in the lockerroom, but it is behind these guys. The real season has started and the Nits showed up Monday night. With only Indiana and Iowa on the Big Ten slate just once again, it was nice to see PSU actually take advantage of these few games with the big road win.

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	57	69	1.22	64.1%	21.1%	27.3%	66.7%
IU	57	60	1.06	50.9%	15.8%	29.4%	14.8%

Now I must admit, I didn’t get to see the game. But it seems pretty simple why the Nits won. They shot lights out, which is usually key ingredient #1 to a Big Ten road win. They also got to the foul line, but the number is a little inflated considering half of the Nits FTAs came with less than 2.5 minutes to go in typical end-of-game foul-a-thon fashion.

Defensively, the numbers are not too impressive. Only 9 forced TOs against a team that practically gives them away? The Nits did keep the Hoosiers off the offensive glass and didn’t put them at the foul line, but the Hoosiers aren’t good up front anyway, so it’s not really saying much. Their main frontcourt contributor, Christian Watford, was hampered with backspasms throughout the game and finished with his worst game of the season. A little disconcerting that despite no inside game, the Hoosiers still shot pretty well, especially from the perimeter (9-20, 45%). But we know this team has defensive issues, so this actually can be considered somewhat of an improved performance. It’ll be interesting to see if PSU sticks to a lot more zone in the future, which they debuted in this game. PSU threw many different looks at the Hoosiers (2-3, 1-3-1, man). Shoutout to Tim Frazier (for a steal and layup in transition) and Jeff Brooks (for a block that landed in PSU’s possession) with some huge defensive plays down the stretch.

Offensively, the Lions took advantage in the first half of some bad defensive breakdowns from the Hoosiers. DJ and Brooks carried the load in the half, combining for 26 of the Lions’ 34 points. DJ did most of his work from the perimeter (3 treys) on some open looks. Brooks paced the Lions the entire game with jumpers and floaters, scoring a career-high 23 points on 12 shots. He also grabbed 8 boards, swatted 3 shots, and didn’t turn the ball over once. Probably the best game of Brooks’ career here. Battle picked it up in the 2nd half with 3 triples, as he finished with 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists. DJ was quiet in the 2nd half offensively, but finished with 15 points and 8 boards. With Tim Frazier and Andrew Jones completely content with not taking any shots, PSU’s 3-headed attack is going to need to produce in a big way for this team to win games. They combined for 57 points and 22 boards against the Hoosiers. It’s hard to see this team winning in this conference if these 3 don’t combine for at least 50 each night…where would the other points come from?

Taran Buie was suspended this game as it was announced he has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. Certainly disappointing, to say the least. Any promise that a Battle-Buie backcourt brought us in the preseason has pretty much been squandered. There’s not much else to say other than there is not going to be much, if any production from the bench. Only Woodyard and Oliver played against the Hoosiers – combining for 4 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist in just 23 minutes. DeChellis has not utilized a deep bench in his 8 years here, so it’s doubtful anything changes in conference unless injuries occur.

All in all, happy the guys won, but there was nothing in this performance that signaled deficiencies had been addressed. The rest of the conference will do a much better job defending PSU’s 3 attackers. Hard to imagine the trio puts up these numbers again this season.

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Massive Recap

Game #2 – St. Joseph’s

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	74	66	0.89	37.3%	21.6%	31.0%	45.5%
SJU	74	57	0.77	38.2%	25.3%	22.0%	36.4%

Game #3 – Fairfield

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	64	64	1.00	48.4%	18.8%	37.8%	8.2%
Fair	64	49	0.77	34.2%	25.0%	38.6%	23.3%

Game #4 – Central Connecticut St

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	65	77	1.19	56.3%	15.4%	26.9%	25.0%
CCSU	65	61	0.94	47.3%	21.5%	31.3%	20.0%

Game #5 – @ Ole Miss

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	59	71	1.20	51.9%	15.3%	38.7%	32.7%
Miss	59	84	1.42	64.4%	15.3%	48.1%	44.2%

Game #6 – Furman

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	57	70	1.23	66.7%	24.6%	40.9%	12.5%
Fur	57	49	0.86	46.9%	22.8%	20.0%	10.4%

This is what has been happening with the basketball program the last 2 and a half weeks. PSU has taken care of business in the 5 games they should have so far. But in the one game that could be considered a toss-up, the Lions’ defense got worked in every facet. Ole Miss put up a Michigan State-like 48.1% offensive rebounding percentage, while they shot well (especially from 3) and took care of the basketball. Harsh critiques of the defense might be not be entirely justified since I didn’t see the game, but obviously these numbers will not win any games in the Big Ten. I say it might not be justified because I don’t think Trevor Gaskins for the Rebels is going score 24 points with 6 threes in a game again, and the defense in the other 5 games has looked much-improved (especially the job done on C.J. McCollum, who recently dropped 42 on Kent State). Time will tell as the season wears on.

Offensively, the Lions have 4 scorers in what appears to be another small rotation. Jeff Brooks has been the biggest surprise so far. I don’t think we’ll be hearing the groans from the crowd as he takes anymore 3′s. His jumper has improved, his handle is more smooth, and he has nearly-perfected a slick pull-up midrange floater off the dribble. While we’ve seen Brooks show flashes in his career, there has been nothing quite like this. His statline against the Rebels (15 pts, 9 rebs, 2 dimes, 2 blocks in 38 min) makes me believe that Jeff could very well be on his way to an unofficial Big Ten Breakout Player of the Year award. David Jackson and Talor Battle are also going to depended upon to put up a bulk of the points. Those 3 are likely going to account for 70% of PSU’s points. However, if one is struggling, where will PSU find the offense to compensate? Taran Buie is the only other player in this rotation that can make some baskets consistently. Granted, he is a true freshmen that is going to have his off-games, but he’s got confidence and the mentality. Tim Frazier looks like a much more controlled game manager in his 2nd year. He’s filling the statsheet everywhere but points. He’s a great creator for others, but one has to wonder how the Big Ten is going to defend a guy who really doesn’t appear comfortable yet shooting the basketball. He’s got a ways to go in showing that he can be depended upon for scoring points on his own when others are having off-nights. Andrew Jones hasn’t really made much progress at all. He’s nearly invisible on offense and apparently he is content with that when he posts up 10′ from the basket. Drew is still counted on for his defense and rebounding, which apparently was missing at Ole Miss (31 minutes – 3 rebounds, 4 fouls). They’re going to need more from Drew here-on-out. Billy Oliver is the only other guy that’s going to log consistent minutes. I like Billy’s game: heady player who draws charges and is always in position on defense, and has a nice shooting touch from deep. However, in his 14 minutes against the Rebels,  he turned the ball over 4 times, so one has to wonder if he can handle the pressure the Big Ten is going to bring.

I’m not a fan of this short bench and I have no idea what’s going on with Tre Bowman/Camm Woodyard/Jermaine Marshall. I personally like Marshall the most out of the three guys. Woodyard’s been getting the most run but his minutes have been inconsistent (1-19-13-15-0-6), and he has only made 2 of his 16 FGA so far. Bowman hasn’t looked comfortable at all in the limited time he has seen on the floor. Marshall has gotten the least amount of time, but he has looked good. I can only hope Marshall does whatever the hell is needed in practice to get on the court. I want to see what he can do in game situations.

I believe we’re in for an interesting year with this crew. I think this team has enough talent and experience to be competitive night-in and night-out in the conference. But there are too many concerns for me to consider this team as having a realistic shot at making the NCAAs. Not yet, anyway. The offense somehow finds ways to produce points, despite the lack of any interior presence, but when the jumpers aren’t falling like against St. Joe’s, this team looks ugly. Defensively, I like the improvements of Brooks and Frazier. Battle did a great job on McCollum and more minutes from Frazier should take some of the ball-handling load off of Talor. He should have legs to be more active. We’ll see how Drew can hold down the interior this Wednesday night against Jordan Williams and Maryland. I need to see more before I’m convinced PSU can defend up to Big Ten standards (<1.00 O-PPP).

We will have a better grasp on this team’s identity after the Maryland and Virginia Tech games…

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Recap: PSU 70 Lehigh 56

Official Box Score

It certainly wasn’t pretty at times, but the Nittany Lions hung tough and won their 6th consecutive season opener. In a game that was eerily similar to last weekend’s exhibition, Penn State displayed a pretty pathetic performance offensively in the first half (21 points, 0.69 PPP, 23.1% TO%, 23% eFG%), but they exploded out of their funk in the 2nd half and ran away with the ball game.

Team	Poss	Score	PPP	eFG%	TO%	OReb%	FT Rate
PSU	63	70	1.11	45.2%	17.4%	46.2%	22.6%
Lehigh	63	56	0.89	44.2%	18.8%	18.2%	23.1%

The four factor analysis shows that PSU won the game with their ridiculous rebounding advantage. I personally think that while the rebounding was superb, the Nittany Lions won the game with their stifling defense. C.J. McCollum, who was only held to single digit scoring 4 times in 33 games during his freshmen campaign, never got in any rhythm and finished with just 7 points on 3-11 shooting.  Battle was matched up on McCollum for the majority of the game, but the rest of the team did a fantastic job providing help whenever he would penetrate. Gabe Knutson, Lehigh’s supposed 2nd best player, didn’t do anything, either, although I was not very impressed with his game. I thought he would be tougher down low, but PSU physically outmuscled him out of the paint. Knutson finished with just 4 points from the foul line and 5 rebounds in 29 minutes. It also should be noted that Michael Ojo, Lehigh’s senior captain and projected 3rd scorer, missed the game with an undisclosed illness.

While PSU’s final defensive numbers are pretty solid, they were even better before garbage time. According to Statsheet, the game was statistically over at 3:15, so I eliminated the last 3 minutes of the play-by-play and recalculated the statistics. With 3 minutes left in the game, Lehigh had just 44 points (17 in the 2nd half) and were scoring just 0.70 PPP on 37.5% eFG%. These are the kinds of defensive performances PSU is going to need to compete in conference play. They only forced the Hawks to turn it over on just 18.8% of their possessions (although Lehigh was solid at taking care of the ball last year), but Jeff Brooks was doing work on the interior with a career-high 5 blocks.

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Lehigh Preview

The Basics:

• WHO: Lehigh Mountain Hawks
• WHERE: Bryce Jordan Center
• WHEN: Tonight, 7:30 PM
• TV: BigTenNetwork.com
• LINE: N/A

The Opponent:

Lehigh is coming off their 2010 Patriot League Championship season, but they are not without players to replace from that squad. They lost 3 starters in Marquis Hall, Zahir Carrington, and Dave Buchberger, but they are returning their best player and reigning Patriot League Player of the Year, C.J. McCollum. McCollum burst onto the scene last season, averaging 19 points a game as a true freshman (while shooting 42% from 3!). Not to be overshadowed, Gabe Knutson had a great freshmen year himself for the Hawks (9.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG). Both McCollum and Knutson will become Lehigh’s 1-2 punch this season as they look to improve on their highly successful freshmen campaigns.

The Hawks have a lot of experience coming back, but there are many reserves who will be counted upon to become night in night out contributers. Michael Ojo was the Hawks’ sixth man last season, but the senior captain will be thrust into the starting lineup tonight. The athletic 6’4″ G averaged 6.8 PPG off the bench and has a versatile offensive game. There appears to be some competition for the starting PG spot between speedy senior Prentice Small and freshman Mackey McKnight. Coach Brett Reed has been hyping up McKnight’s preseason thus far, but I’d have to think he’ll stick with the senior, at least in the early going of the season.

The Hawks last season averaged 70.2 possessions per game. Offensively, the Hawks excelled at shooting the basketball, taking care of the basketball, and getting to the foul line. They actually were 9th in the country in 3Pt% at 40%, but 2 of their 4 shooters have graduated. Defensively, they protected the glass and didn’t send their opponents to the foul line. It’s tough to project exactly how the Hawks will ball this season, but the Nittany Lions’ defense will be tested tonight. The key obviously is slowing down and harassing McCollum all night. I have a feeling that Battle and McCollum will be getting into a Battle/Delaney-esque shoot-off.

Notes:

• DJ Jackson, who suffered a slight quad strain in the exhibition, is ready to play tonight
• All 4 2011 verbal commitments put it in writing Wednesday
• Jarelle Reischel hopes to decide between Penn State, Seton Hall, and Rice this weekend
• Statsheet launched their new network. Be sure to bookmark HappyValleyBall.com

Prediction:

The Lions looked sloppy offensively, to say the least, in the exhibition Sunday. They can’t afford any lulls now, it’s the real season. Watching this team last year, though, and seeing the same tendencies already this season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few stretches tonight where the Lions can’t score the ball. Defensively, the Lions have got to know where McCollum is at all times, obviously. They can’t let the Hawks get hot from downtown either. Lehigh is a pretty solid team (I already feel like underestimated them in my Schedule Breakdown), so I would be surprised if PSU wins handily tonight. I’ll take PSU at home in an entertaining, close affair – 74-68.

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A Look Back – 2006/2007 Recruiting

Previous Installments – 2005 class, 2004 class (includes Grading Criteria)

I decided to combine these two classes, since they will be graduating together at the end of this season.

After bringing in 11 players over the last two classes, there weren’t many ‘ships available for these classes. The 2006 class only had 2 scholarships – Travis Parker’s and Cilk McSweeney’s (former walk-on who was awarded one that was not filled during the year). The 2007 class originally had 2 scholarships (Ben Luber’s and Mooch Jackson’s), but ended up with 4 after the transfers of Milos Bogetic and Max Dubois.

2006 Class

• DJ Jackson (Farrell, PA) – DJ has had an inconsistent career so far. He redshirted his first year because of a stress fracture in his left femur.He had an OK freshmen year, a pretty terrible stretch his sophomore year, but he bounced back last year and proved himself to be the 2nd leading scorer on the team. He had a decorated career in high school and had a decent amount hype surrounding him. Despite some other critics’, I do believe he has Big Ten starting talent. He has an all-around game and shoots at a solid %, but he just needs to be more assertive on offense…which we could see this year. Overall, DJ has been one of DeChellis’ better recruits.
  Career – 103 GP (71 GS) 6.4 PPG, 45% FG%, 3.7 RPG
  Signing Period – Fall 2005
  Grade (thus far) – B-
• Andrew Jones (Philadelphia, PA) - Jones has been PSU’s best big man under DeChellis, but that’s not saying much. He came to PSU raw, only having played organized basketball for 3 years. But other than a few stretches (like the NIT run), he has had a pretty frustrating career with mindless fouls and stone hands. He’s improved in those areas, but he has never shown the ability to call for the ball in the paint and then get a bucket. If he can have a Jason Love-like senior year (11.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG), it would have a tremendous impact on PSU’s season this year.  (Love was a former HS teammate of Jones’, someone some PSU fans wished we landed instead)
  Career – 100 GP (83 GS) 5.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 55.1% FG%
  Signing Period – Fall 2005
  Grade (thus far) – C

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